2021 Election Review
some realism with a side of "still broken"
As the Left freaks out over 2021 election result, a few thoughts to ameliorate Democrats and activists on the Left.
First - This is normal. Can you name a Virginia/New Jersey election result since 1980 that buttressed the President and his party (i.e. both gubernatorial results followed the political swing of the prior presidential election)? Don’t bother trying. It’s been more than 50 years since it has occurred.
Virginia, which has single term governors, has with the exception of the 2013 election consistently run counter to presidential results. That’s nine out of the last ten elections.
New Jersey has reelected four governors since 1980. In the six elections that did not involve a reelection race, the party out of power in the White House prevailed in five of them.
This is not meant to be a ”meh” reaction, but a little realism about historical realities and the difficulty of winning the White House and then the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia ought to be taken into account. (It is worth noting that when this political trifecta occurred in 1961 and 1965, the Democratic Party had a large conservative wing, and when it happened in 1969, the GOP was considerably more moderate).
On the plus side, the Democrats still won 2 of 3 gubernatorial elections in 2021. (California had a recall referendum in September.)
Second - The Virginia GOP’s decision to nominate by convention rather than hold a primary was brilliant. The best way to hide Trumpist fealty and Far Right viewpoints is to skip the part where that’s the political argument. Glen Youngkin did not have to shift to the political center in the Fall, because there was no Spring primary campaign to tie him to ultra-conservative views on guns, abortion, LGBTQ rights, etc. Glen Youngkin, without ever really having to prove his ideological bona fides, will be ensconced in the governor’s mansion next January with white supremacists, anti-abortion activists, and members of the Religious Right clapping one another on the back with "he’s one of us” nods and smiles.
Third - The bulk of the freak-out is purely over Mr. Youngkin’s election. His reactionary views on race, religion, women, and those in the LBGTQ community place him fairly within the ultra-conservative wing of the GOP.
Had Jack Ciattarelli prevailed in New Jersey and former governor Terry McAuliffe won in Virginia, the “meh” reaction would have been sweeping and rightly so. Jack Ciattarelli, his fealty to the Big Lie notwithstanding, is a moderate to conservative Republican.
Since 1980, New Jerseyans have elected and reelected three Republicans governors who aligned themselves with Right of Center politics and policies. Given the reelection percentages for Tom Kean, Christine Todd Whitman*, and Chris Christie, it’s hard to argue political realignment or even that a discernable shift in the state’s politics occurred. Given the state’s moderate electorate and the Democrats advantage in party registration, it’s hard to imagine Jack Ciattarelli straying too far from Center had he won.
*While both Kean and Christie won in landslides, 69.6% and 60.3% respectively; Whitman’s faced a tough opponent on the Left, Democrat Jim McGreevy, and two Third Party candidates to her Right who drew 6.16% of the vote. Without those two Third Party candidacies, she would have easily passed 55% of the vote.
Fourth - Electoral failures in Virginia and Pennsylvania (county & municipal races and judicial elections) and the “by a nose” victory in New Jersey can be summed up in two words: poor turnout. Trump voters went to the polls in much higher percentages than Biden voters in these three states and the results could have easily been better with more GOTV (Get Out The Vote) activism and less “just give us money and we’ll win” fundraising.
In 40 plus years of political activism, I have only seen three elections where the Democrats’ GOTV was better than the GOP’s: 2008, 2018, and 2020. Since 1981, the Left has had control of the White House and both Houses of Congress three times for a total of 6 years (1993-95, 2009-11, and 2021-2023). Presidents Clinton and Obama had to curtail their agendas tremendously after mid-terms, and if 2022 goes as predicted, President Biden’s agenda will be similarly shortened. It seems a bit backward to elect a Democrat president to run the country for 4 years, but hobble him/her with a two year warranty for policy effectiveness.
In an era where Democratic Party pragmatism and progressive idealism are stunted by stark partisanship are the Right, elections must be less about convincing the political middle to lean Left and more about bringing a progressive majority to the polls consistently.