Midterm Motivation Part II

or how to message a rift in the American electorate

In any given election, gerrymandering notwithstanding, about 45% of people vote Democratic and 45% vote Republican. Political consultants, media gurus, and campaign managers obsess over that 10% or more. Unfortunately, Democrats have been dying on that bit of political pragmatism for 50 years.

Realists and nihilists know better. Elections are won with 50% plus one vote and little else. The only difference is that Leftists draw their political weaponry from Saul Alinsky and the nihilists on the Right just gerrymader themselves majorities.

The trick to elections is to get to that 50% plus 1. There is an old school concept in election politics that goes beyond messaging and media — it’s called GOTV.

Get Out the Vote, i.e GOTV, is the key to winning elections. It always has been. Abortion. Gay Rights. Civil Rights. Protecting Social Security and Medicare. Education. Find an issue and bring the voters to the polls on Election Day who want to protect it.

1982, 1986, 2006, and 2018 were not simply midterms and the Left cutting into the Right’s presidential coattails. It was messaging a continuing battle against the GOP’s agenda. Outside of 1980, the presidential coattails were minimal — the GOP only gained 16 seats in 1984, 3 in 2004, and 6 seats in 2016. The blowback, however, messaging nothing more than “vote to stop Reagan…Bush (II)…Trump” was huge. If Trump is really running in 2024 — running against him in 2022 is an easy message

1994 and 2002 were testaments to punting on 2nd down or going to middle relief in the third inning. The Democrats did nothing to defend Clinton and then did even less to push the stolen 2000 election. Staying on offense piles up points and runs — trying to keep a slim lead is a recipe for disaster.

2022 is about stopping Trumpism. Democrats need organizing and election day planning more than campaign ads and cueing up messaging to cull Soccer moms, Mama Grizzles, Security Moms, or whatever demographic is discovered — paint the GOP as anti-women, anti minority, anti-LGTBQ, anti-working class, etc. is a far more effective message.