Some really really ugly scenarios for the GOP
Part II of a series "Why the GOP should be rooting for Trump to lose"
From 1933 to 1995, save for two brief blips, the Republicans were a firmy entrenched minority in the House of Representatives. The same blips cropped up in the Senate except that the GOP had a sizable majority from 1981-1987 while Reagan was president.
And while FDR, JFK, LBL, and Jimmy Carter (I want to give him the JC and he has certainly earned it, but he’d disown such an appellation) enjoyed full control of Congress for the entirety of their terms; every President with three notable exceptions have enjoyed partisan control of at least one of house of Congress during their time in office. Nixon, Ford, and Bush the Elder each found themselves without their own partisan tiller and yet managed to guide their ships of state with significant levels of legislative success.
And after Truman suffered through some back and forth prior to election to a full term in 1948, his successor Eisenhower presaged the new political realities of presidential-congressional relations — political honeymoons followed by marital comity, discord, or divorce (e.g. see impeachments of Clinton and Trump).
What might go wrong with a Trump electoral college victory in 2024?
Well, a rereading of the above question should tell you the major problem — Trump’s victory would be plurality based. There’s no reason to think otherwise. Trump has failed to break the 47% mark twice; and during his prior term in office, the meta-data of Trump’s Approve/Disapprove polling was 42%/52%.
Nightmare I. Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million plus votes (this is a totally reasonable assumption given the electoral results of 2016 and 2020). Trump’s electoral victory falls between 270 and 290 votes. Unfortunately for Trump, the House flips to the Democrats and the new Speaker is Hakeem Jeffries. While the Senate is split 50-50 giving Trump a legislative foothold — that honeymoon is short lived when Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) switch parties shortly after Trump is sworn in as the 47th president.
After the 2026 midterms, the House has over 275 Democrats and the Senate has a healthy 8 seat advantage for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
In 2028, the GOP presidential primary is in total shambles as Trump indicates, he might declare martial law to avoid legal consequences in New York (prison time) and Georgia (his criminal trial is ready to go with him as the sole remaining defendant).
As an added insult, there is a recession in early 2026 and Trump begins polling in the mid-30s most days and often no better than 25%. The GOP has lost political control of all but a few barn red states and it’s looking like the Democrats will be able to expand the Supreme Court to 13 seats after the 2028 presidentail election essentially ending the Federalist Society death-grip on the Judicary Branch.
Nightmare II. Same as above, except the Democrats don’t need Murkowski or Collins to change parties — they still do, but it’s a matter of MAGA rejection over the convenience of being consequential as political moderates. The Supreme Court reads the political tea leaves before 2026 and start reversing their outcome-based decisions: textualism when it works for the political Right and judical activism when it doesn’t.
Based on the 2026 midterms and polling going into 2028 — the GOP’s 50 years of gerrymandering for political control seems headed for the dustbin of history.
Nightmare III - Biden loses, but wins the popular vote with over 50%. There are open calls for Trump’s Third Impeachment (the Mar-a-Lago documents case is clearly a High Crime), LaFayette Park has a regular crowd of angry Leftists protesting every day, and Trump is unable to get away from DC as he has lost Bedminster, Trump Tower, and Mar-a-Lago as homes (thanks, Letitia!).
The recession comes within 12 months of Trump’s swearing-in and the GOP sees corporate America embrace Keynesian economics and their PAC support from Big Business dries up. Trump is reviled as a 21st Century Herbert Hoover.
Impossible you say.
Trump managed one legislative achievement with control of both the House and Senate as president — a tax cut for the rich. Replacing Obamacare, an Infrastructure bill, the Wall between Mexico and the US, and a myriad of other Trump policy promises all failed.
Trump’s inability to deal with anyone who won’t do what he wants is a stunning political indictment. Clinton and Obama were remarkable in their ability to carve out legislative successes after they no longer had Democratic majorities. Bush the younger handled the rebuke of his post-9/11 political fiefdom with aplomb after the 2006 elections.
If you need an example of the above - watch how Trump handles his assets being seized come Monday morning.