Ten problems Trump faces in 2024
in case you still think Trump might run
A reader asked me, rather trollishly, “What makes you think the greatest President ever won’t run and win in 2024?”.
At the risk of losing one of the small handful of readers I have, here goes:
By 2024, Trump’s taxes are going to be public information - This syllogistic truism is pretty basic. The Manhattan DA and NY AG are not pursuing nothing. And given the energy and effort that has gone into their investigation (now at a grand jury level), it is unimagineable that by 2024, the world won’t know Trump’s tax situation and by extension his financial status.
Being Twitterless means something - He’s also banned on Snapchat. He’s indefinitely suspended on Facebook, Instagram, Twitch, and YouTube. In social media, if you’ve been kicked off the island, you do not exist. Political viability in the 21sts Century requires internet access and Trump is working with the equivalent of dial-up access.
Non-tax indictments - The January 6th Insurrection and Georgia election tampering case both loom large on Trump’s lawyers redweld file with the label: PENDING. In case you are thinking “nothing will come of it”, you missed the public announcement of Attorney General Merrick Garland on January 5th and President Biden’s speech on January 6th. The word is signalling, I think — in short, legal troubles are coming and being a former President is not going to help.
The value of not being named Hillary Clinton is worth 3 percent - Actually it’s 3.11% and that’s a lot. That 3% gave Biden wins in 25 States (plus DC) with 22 of the states won by absolute majorities. Hillary Clinton, by comparison, won 20 states (plus DC) with only 13 states with absolute majorities.
Lack of base expansion - Trump’s base did not expand, anywhere. In 2020, Trump improved his popular vote percentage by roughly 0.80%. Trump’s percentages in the 7 closest states that went for Hillary in 2016 improved by an average of 0.25%. In the 7 closest states Trump won in 2016, Trump averaged 0.62% better in 2020 (and he only won 2 of them). And in Trump’s best 10 states in 2016, his aggregate percentage improved by 0.82%.
The Melania Factor - Melania and her lawyers renegotiated her pre-nup while Trump was President. I don’t need to know what’s in the pre-nup to know Trump running for President is going to cost him financially, emotionally, and politically. If you think they have a weird relationship now, imagine Melania opting out of 2024 run (not divorce per se, but a clear separation from everything the Donald does).
The Lincoln Project - They’ve got 2.7 million followers on Twitter and 1.5 million on Facebook. They have a YouTube channel. They are churning out ads and videos constantly. And it’s all anti-Trump and its core supporters are, wait for it, conservative Republican Never-Trumpers. Trying calling them RINOs or Democrats and they get vicious. Wait, here’s the worst par - their inner circle is conservative political consultants.
Kavanaugh and Barrett on the Supreme Court - Not sure if Justice Lucius Lamar or Chief Justice Melvin Fuller were part of the political debate in 1892 when Grover Cleveland ran for the Presidency (again), but it’s a sure thing any controversial or conservative decisions from the Supreme Court are going to put Trump in a very tight political box. Abortion, OSHA regulations (COVID related), and Congressional Power are all on the docket this year and who knows what issues will be before the Court in its next two terms. One unpopular opinion and 46.9% will be Trump’s high water mark electorally.
Midterms might be Trump’s undoing and it has nothing to do with the House or Senate - The last two Democratic Presidents proved that a GOP controlled Congress was not much of a political impediment. But if Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Texas, or Ohio get Democratic governors, Trump is in trouble. Why? That’s where the war on GOP voter suppression and disenfranchisement can be won (particularly in Florida). Plus, Trump likes friendly political territory. Blue and Purple states don’t deliver that.
The baggage of a prior political term - Martin van Buren, Millard Fillmore, Grover Cleveland, and Theodore Roosevelt all ran for the presidency as former Presidents. When T.R. did it in 1912, there weren’t any radio stations and television would not be invented for another 15 years. Expect ugliness and the revelation that Trump is wholly unaware of his Administrative record.
If anyone else were in Trump’s position (a one-term president seeking another term), there would be a room of advisors, consultants, and political allies have a sit-down to explain the problems with trying to pull off a “Grover Cleveland” in the modern age and with the foregoing list (which is incomplete). Unfortunately, Trump eschews realism and has a poor understanding of his politically ineffectual populism.