The Politics of Putin
and why it's bad for the Right
While here in the United States, we are focused on an expected, feared, and loathed presidential run of Donald Trump; in Russia, the reelection campaign of Vladimir Putin is more or less a done deal - the fear and loathing are just an effect. Both presidential elections are 2 years out, but current events have the potential to affect the outcome of both contests.
And it all centers on Ukraine.
Ukraine, which became an independent nation in 1990, has become the most “dangerous problem in the world” according to Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. A misunderstanding of the geopolitical importance of an independent Ukraine and a failure to see that a Russian takeover of Ukraine is part of a far darker design by Putin to fracture and deconstruct NATO as a potent political force in Europe has moved the dangerous problem to actual crisis.
A military success with the invasion of Uktraine doesn’t merely boost Putin, it will embolden him and his oligarchy to look beyond its trio of client-states to do more.
The politics of invading is much murkier. Only 10% of the Russian population supports Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Russian markets are already roiling with the impact of the first level of economic sanction imposed by President Biden.
Across the pond, here, the politics are even denser. Trumpism has put the political Right into a box where they are cheering on an action that is inopposite of freedom, U.S. interests, and lower gas prices.
When it comes to foreign policy, most Americans fail not only in understanding the world’s geopolitical conflicts but in geography itself. Ukraine controls most of the commerce of the Black Sea. Oil comes through the Black Sea before it gets to petrol stations. The price of Putin will be easily measured per liter or per gallon sooner rather than later.
Recent pollings show that a majority of Americans oppose U.S. entanglement in Ukraine. It’s unlikely that pollsters explained the connection between Ukraine and oil prices.
Right-wing memes complaining of rising gas prices could easily be supplanted by leftist memes, were they organized enough. Putin and his oligarchy will push gas prices past the 5 dollar mark, and it’s political malpractice for the Democrats not to message the blame on Donald Trump and the GOP.
But that is the mere tip of what cheering of Putin and his military invasion might cost the political Right in America.
There are nearly 900,000 Ukrainian-Americans in the U.S.; and they may become a key constituency for Biden come 2024, if the GOP abandons them in their devolution into Trumpism. In a post-invasion political world, Ukrainian-American voters in Florida (42,754), Ohio (47,228), Arizona (10,817), Georgia and (9,197) loom large. And cheering on Putin might cost the GOP a key swing state - Pennsylvania has 122,291 Ukranian-Americans.
The conventional wisdom that there is no consituency for foreign policy has always been somewhat debunkable —- now it’s pure nonsense.