Trump 2024 has all the makings of a GOP fiasco
Some presidential results stand out for the lackluster results of the losers.
Say what you will about Carter in 1980, but at least he crossed the 40% line. Falling below that political Mendoza line ought to be end of one’s political influence forver.
It doesn’t, of course. Both Barry Goldwater and George McGovern carried on with their Senate careers after ignomiuos losses in 1964 and 1972, respectively. And George H.W. Bush segued to senior statesman status post presidency rather well.
Maybe the line needs to be adjusted for the new century or more importantly, it’s time to factor in party political losses attributable to the President.
Trump falls in 4th and 5th place on popular vote performance since 2000. And that’s just among GOP candidates. If Democratic candidate popular performance is thrown in Trump falls to 10th and 11th place supplanting only John McCain as the worst popular vote candidate percentage-wise. The losing Democrats in 2000, 2004, and 2016 all got more than Trump did at his high water mark of 46.9%.
But what of political lossess or gains?
Trump lost control of Congress during his presidency, but so did Obama, Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush. For Reagan, Obama and W, the losses were part of the “six year itch” that occurs during the mid-term following a president’s reelection. Since 1960, only Clinton and Trump managed to lose party control of Congress during their first term as President.
But, President’s rarely achieve gains in mid-terms. It’s happened only thrice - in 1998 under Clinton, in 1934 under FDR, and in 2002 with George W. Bush. The faux shock of party electoral losses is laughable. Mid-terms ought to be measured by something, but a combination of gerrymandering and voter supression would boggle even the best of bookmakers.
With Biden’s political control of Congress extremely thin, it would be shocking to see that grip still in place in 2023. But on the upside, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama made their reelections about the economy (and what Congress should be doing). George W. Bush made it about the “War on Terror”, because that was all he needed. The best thing that could happen to Biden, is a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.
In the past 50 years, no president has been reelected with complete control of Congress. That is entirely on Carter. He stands alone as the only president since FDR to have complete control of Congress while President. It did not help. He stands as one of three one-term Presidents since the Great Depression.
The failed reelections of Carter, GHW Bush, and Trump were mostly about economic woes, but also about failing to place partisan blame on Congress (in the case of Carter - the inability to do so). For Bush and Trump, the problem had less to do with Democrats in Congress and everything to do with intra-pary division within the GOP.
With a healthy economy and a likely GOP House (the Senate is a bit harder the handicap at this moment), Trump will have little to run on.
Worse still, if the GOP’s political majority is as thin as the Democrats is now, the potential for a political Blue Tsunami is in the offing in 2026 should Trump win the White House.
How big? In 2018, the Democrats won 60,572,245 votes in House elections to the GOP’s 50,861,970. The Democratic vote was nearly 92% of the turnout for Hillary Clinton. The Republican vote was about 80% of Trump’s 2016 vote. The political messaging for the Democrats in 2018 was basically “My opponent is pro-Trump, I am anti-Trump. Vote for me.” That translated into a 41 seat swing to the Democrats and with it control of the House. It does not get more realist than that.
The GOP ought to keep the above in mind before ceding the GOP nomination to Donald Trump. And they might want to consider the only President to serve non-consecutive terms — Grover Cleveland. In 1894, the Democrats lost the House (by 127 seats - the largest swing in U.S. history) and Senate. It was Cleveland’s attentuated “six year itch”.
And the Democrats would not regain control of the House for 16 years.