Trump is not running for President

but, he is running from something

Judging by the fundraising letters I get via text message and email, one would think Trump is not only running for President but that he’s campaigning right now and the election is next year.

Problem is, of course, that Trump cannot run for President officially. If Trump were to “officially” announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race, it would implicate obeisance to a plethora of laws and regulations and more importantly place his campaign within the ambit of the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

For a man who who loves to brag about what he can do, wants to do, and intends to do without the strictures of scripts, teleprompters, or legal advisors, it’s been a tough row to hoe. And despite his narcissistic personality and Dunning-Kruger effect issues, Trump has managed to not tell his minions on the “down low” that he was in fact “running for President”.

Why has Trump acceded to the opinions and instructions of others?

Two Hundred and Seven Million reasons and counting. Not reasons so much as dollars in Trump’s Super PAC (weirdly named Make America Great Again, Again).

The presence of this PAC has become a bizarre legal kryptonite for Donald Trump. As long as Donald Trump is not officially running for President, a position he can legally hold until Fall 2023 , and by then, his PAC will be well beyond $800 million, Trump can raise funds unhindered. The minute he announces, contributions, payouts, and an accounting of his $200 million plus (and growing) checkbook, will be public information.

But in 2023. the 76 year old former President will not be running for President.

What will he be doing? Same thing he’s doing now: Evading prosecution by claiming it’s a political maneuver by Democrats and certain elements within the GOP to keep him from getting elected President.

It is a rather elegant strategy.

New York prosecutors are after Trump for tax fraud. “Democrats are jealous of my business success.”

Georgia grand jury goes after Trump for election tampering. “Brad Raffensperger (GA Secretary of State) and other RINOs let Democrats vote illegally and now are coming after me, because they know I won and will win again.”

Being named as a potential defendant in the January 6th insurrection. Trump’s lawyer put up an all out blitz to prevent the National Archives from giving his presidential papers to the House Committee investigating the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Despite getting a rather stunning rebuke by U.S. Judge Tanya Chutkan, Trump will double down on this attack, appeal, and scream political prosecution.

Will it work?

It’s already working. Trump is hiding behind an ever growing wall of “campaign funds” that not only serves as untaxed and unregulated cash flow, but seemingly dissuades seasoned prosecutors from pursuing him or his associates for criminal conduct.

Garland is non-committal about even the most basic contempt of Congress charge against Steve Bannon (Judge Chutkan’s decision is essentially a “prosecute Mr. Garland or be in contempt of Congress yourself” directive).

The New York prosecutors (both Manhattan and NYS) have been sitting on a tax fraud case where Trump and his kids have already admitted to running a fraudulent charity.

And Georgia has recorded phone calls with attorneys and witnesses on both ends as President Trump asked Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes” so he could win Georgia’s 16 Electoral Collège votes. That peach of a prosecution is being presented to a grand jury to consider the already acknowledged (and well evidenced) criminal acts.

And all of this plays into Trump’s hands. His business record of 4,500 lawsuits against him is not one of legal jousting over the principals of contract law, but a lesson in delays, dilatory motions, and interlocutory appeals. Plaintiffs lost not on the legitimacy of their claims or from problems of proof of damages, but because they could not afford the costs of litigating against Trump.

Unfortunately for Trump, criminal courts are not designed the way civil courts are. Cases get docketed, tracked, and adjudicated very quickly.

And therein lies the the flaw of using a presidential campaign to shield Trump from criminal prosecution. It only works if Trump is actually running.

Running for president unofficially is like planning to use birth control, it does not change the present nor predict the future. Pregnancies are not immaculate events (with one exception) and presidential campaigns have deadlines, paperwork, and legal requirements. Trump is no more running for president than the purchase of a condom means a college freshman is going to get lucky.

The Left would be better served by denying Trump is running for President and start messaging that “Trump’s running from the law”.