What is the End Game in Ukraine?

Or Whither Diplomacy or War?

My friend Dave asked “Putin says anyone who aids Ukraine militarily is at war with Russia…so why are we still relying on diplomacy?”

Diplomacy and war are the political tools of pragmatists and realists. Idealists recoil against war; nihilists recoil against diplomacy.

The difference between war and diplomacy is that war is theoretically temporary; and diplomacy is a permanent game of “Minnesota Nice”, a poorly worded phrase for being pleasant to people you’d just as soon never saw again.

The answer to Dave’s question, though, is a bit of a conundrum. Does the international community need to play diplomacy imperpetuity to get a minimal amount of obeisance for international law and human rights? Probably, but given the paucity of moments in world history marked by peace, diplomacy is hardly getting passing grades.

Except…

In the strictest sense, diplomacy has not been tried yet in the Russia-Ukraine War except to create corridors to allow civilians to flee. To be fair, diplomacy has failed there mostly, because Putin is unwilling to abide by his agreements.

Economic sanctions are from a realist perspective merely a means to pull a rogue nation-state into the bargaining room. And, the effects of the massive economic sanctions imposed on Putin et al. are still largely unknown. It’s only been about three weeks. But, the Russian economy is in full collapse as a result and Putin’s oligarchy cannot touch their money, so the U.S. and NATO will know soon enough how well the economic sanctions work.

It’s worth pointing out that the United States imposed decades of sanctions on Iran (and held onto the Shah’s stolen bullion) to rein in that ruthless regime. Eventually, Iran cowtowed to U.S. demands about its nuclear program through the JCPOA. The fact that Trump walked away from that particular treaty is more about nihilism and ego than a failure of “carrot and stick” diplomacy.

On the flip side, Putin has not just violated cease-fire agreements in Ukraine, he has violated both of the Minsk Protocols as well. The first (Minsk I) signed in 2014 and the second (Minsk II) signed in 2016 were designed to rein in Russian encroachment and aggression in Ukraine. Of course idealism and nihilism aside, Putin had no reason to abide by agreements he made with a corrupt puppet regime he and his oligarchs installed - both agreements lacked a stick and the carrot was meaningless.

At some point, Putin has to beg for negotiations as neither military domination of Ukraine or veiled threats against NATO members is going to change the fact that his bank, transportation, and inboxes have been closed, repossessed, and eliminated, respectively. It’s only the amount of time that it will take.

So, Dave my friend, there’s been little diplomacy tried and given the fact that Putin’s military game plan is not working out as plan, it’s hard to give diplomacy a “gentleman’s C” — at this point it’s more like an incomplete.