Baked Alaska Primary melts Sarah Palin's Comeback
And gives Murkowski a huge edge for a 4th Term
Baked Alaska is a dish is made of ice cream and sponge cake topped with meringue. The entire dessert is put into an extremely hot oven for a brief time, long enough to firm and caramelize the meringue but not long enough to melt the ice cream.1
The big news in the Last Frontier State was that Democrat Mary Peltola won the special election to replace Representative Don Young (R-AK), who died in March, besting former Governor Sarah Palin and nominally Republican Nick Begich III.2 (Nick Begich has significant family ties to the Democratic Party and has never sought political office).
However, despite Peltola winning the first round with 39.66% (Palin won 30.93% and Begich won 27.84%); in the second round of voting, Palin got more than half of Begich’s votes with ranked choice and Peltola a third of them3. The final result was not a nearly 9 point win from the first round of voting, but a considerably closer 3 point win as Peltola edged Palin 51.47% to 48.53% in the second round.
The biggest realist conclusion from the Democratic victory is that Alaska Democrats win when voters show a preference for a Democrat after voting for the most moderate Republican, i.e ranked choice voting helps the Democrats, but only by eliminating far-Right candidates.
“Consider throwing us a bone in round two” is hardly a winning slogan.
However, that slogan likely will play a very big role in the Senate election for incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Murkowski came out on top in Alaska’s top four open primary system with 45%. Trump endorsed Republican Kelly Tshibaka won 38.58%, Democrat Patricia Chesbro got 6.83%, and Buzz Kelly, a retired mechanic received 2.13%.4
If you did the math, you can see the top 4 candidates won only 92.54%. Alaska has the most unaffiliated voters in the country and independents hold considerable sway. But that 7.46% won’t have a big effect on the November outcome — if Chesbro voters make Murkowski their second choice, Senator Murkowski should get reelected with little issue.
The reason Murkowski is being targeted by the Trump wing of the GOP is that she (along with 6 other Republican Senators) voted “Guilty” in Trump’s Second Impeachment Trial. While her vote (and the other 6) was not quite “Profiles in Courage”, her vote seemed the most Edmund Ross-ian.5
But Murkowski’s importance to the political Left is critical. She along with Susan Collins of Maine represent a political firewall for the Democrats.
Mitch McConnell doesn’t have 50 Republicans in his caucus. He has two moderates who could switch parties and not miss a beat and 48 Republicans who have nightmares that they might.
And if that happens, the ice cream melts pretty fast.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baked_Alaska
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrat-mary-peltola-defeats-sarah-palin-in-alaskas-house-special-election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election#Results_2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska#Results
https://kevinmarkwray.medium.com/stop-looking-for-edmund-g-ross-the-senate-lost-people-like-him-25-years-ago-4f984be1218f