Donald Trump's 4 percent problem
or maybe the Democrats' headache.
I get polls shoved in my face every day, figuratively speaking.
I tend to reject any poll showing Trump with over 44% nationally. The reason is pure realism. If a candidate consistently has an approval/disapproval polling of 42/52 (that is the metadata of polls conducted on Donald Trump since May 2017), any poll showing him with more than 47% is either skewed Republican or just a junk poll.
Forty-seven percent? Yeah, given Trump’s inability to get past 46% twice and the absence of any messaging or strategy designed to expand Trump’s base, any poll showing Trump getting more has serious biases or flaws.
Need proof…here is the latest polling from ABC/Ipsos.
From the Meidas Touch Network
Why didn’t Donald Trump get an assassination attempt boost, a VP pick boost, or a convention boost poll-wise?
A case of few people being medium on Donald. People either love him or loathe him. It’s the absence of a “he’s okay” sentiment with regard to Donald Trump.
Donald Trump is not wildly popular outside of the 10 states where he broke 60% of the vote. And of the 15 other states Trump won in 2020; he got less than 55% in 6 of them, and in one of those 6, he only won it with a plurality (NC).1
There’s a reason that so few states are battlegrounds in presidential elections — few states are realistically competitive. There are about 34 states that are completely out of reach.
State polling invariably whittles those seemingly competitive 16 states into a half a dozen or so must win states.
So what is the 4% percent problem?
Nationally, his disapproval averages about 42%. His vote ceiling is 46%. Ten percent of the people who will likely vote for him don’t actually support him.
Of course, nationally means nothing with the Electoral College.
States count. Way too much for Idealists, not enough for Nihilists.
For Pragmatists, it’s a jigsaw puzzle…for Realists, it’s a Gordian Knot.
TO BE CONTINUED
Biden won 7 states with over 60% and 8 other states with over 55% but less than 60%.
Well said, Kevin.