Don't assume Trump is done
or that the GOP can push him out
A combination of a political wash at midterms, Ron DeSantis’s reelection as Florida governor, and a post-election meltdown within the MAGA faction of the GOP emboldened the smaller but more mainstream conservative faction within the GOP.
The Democrats had their “Anyone but Hillary” effort in 2016; and going into 2024, it will probably be “Anyone but Trump” for the Republicans.
A few realist thoughts going into an expected press conference from Donald Trump announcing his presidential bid.
One, Donald Trump is the 800 pound gorilla for the GOP. He leads in money, political support, and polling. And that polling favors him in the primaries and at this point in time head to head vs Joe Biden.1
Two, Donald Trump wanted to make this announcement a week ago going into what was expected to be a “red wave" to shutter any potential Republican rivals (e.g. Ron DeSantis) and to take credit for an expected drubbing of the Democrats.
Three, despite pleas from his closest advisors to wait until the 2022 election cycle was complete (everyone on the Left and Right saw the Georgia Senate race going to a December runoff), Donald Trump wanted to announce he was running for president as a form of political protection from prosecution.
Since the Summer, Donald Trump’s legal problems have grown tremendously. The New York AG’s civil fraud case against the Trump Organization, the January 6th Committee’s investigation, and the D.C. grand jury investigating Trump’s involvement into the 2020 fake elector scheme2 were all landmines in Trump’s political path; and then, the Mar-a-Lago search warrant and discovery of classified documents at Trump’s Florida residence put a legal nalpalm in his plans for a 4th or 5th presidential run.3 And the need for a second grand jury in D.C.
Donald Trump sees (and saw) a presidential run as a form of legal krytonite from prosecution. One cannot blame Trump for thinking so, the vast majority of Attorney Generals of the U.S. since 1980 (acting AGs notwithstanding) have had political and electoral bona fides prior to their ascension to the top job at the Department of Justice.4 The assumption is and always has been that AGs check the political winds before taking on a politician. In reality, it just ramps up the need for a more ring-fenced case.
Of the baker’s dozen of Attorney Generals of the U.S. we’ve had since 1980, only Michael Mukasey (under George H.W. Bush) and Merrick Garland (Biden) came from the federal judiciary. Judges tend to be impervious to partisan politics. One would think given the number of losses Trump has endured in federal court, he would have learned that.
Tommorow, why Trump’s legal problems were not going away with a red wave and why the GOP cannot help him if they get a majority of House seats in 2023. (Yes, it’s still not yet decided.)
Trump ran for President officially in 2000, 2016, and 2020 and campaigned “unoffically” in 2012.
William French Smith and Ed Meese III were close advisors to Reagan when he was governor. Richard Thornburg was the Pennsylvania Governor. William Barr (under both Bush I and Trump was a political active Republican)