Forget Endgame in Ukraine
Putin has no middle game
In baseball, it’s called middle relief pitching. The team manager puts in stoppers and set-up men to get to the 9th inning. Comeback wins and one run victories are built on middle inning strategy.
It’s clear by events in the past few days, Putin underestimated the resolve of the people of Ukraine. His threats of nuclear options (unlikely) and using biochemical weapons (not so unlikely) are clear indications that Putin, who expected to take Kyiv in 3 days, has no middle game in his military strategy.
It’s much more than supply chain issues, logistical problems, and indications of some pull backs by Russian forces:
Putin has been hitting civilian targets and refugee corridors. Hospitals, schools, and civilian shelters have all been attacked. Fleeing civilains have also been targeted. If Putin expected such attacks to demoralize Ukraine. The exact opposite has happened.
An 11 year old kid volunteered to fight alongside men for his country1.
Worry not. The troops sent him home. The Ukraine troops look proud of him. Eleven year old Maxim looks like he’s going to be part of the Ukraine Underground if Putin wins.
And the Maxim photo is hardly an anomaly. There is also this2.
Humans have three basic reactions to danger - Flee, Freeze, or Fight. Putin has eliminated the flee option and his targeting of civilains has made the freeze option pointless.
In 1942, Ghandi gave an impassioned speech to his countrymen that placed the intellectual leaderr of non-violent resistance at the crossroads of realism. It is known as the “Do or Die” address.
“Here is a mantra, a short one, that I give to you. You may imprint it on your hearts and let every breath of yours give expression to it. The mantra is ‘Do or Die.’ We shall either free India or die in the attempt; we shall not live to see the perpetuation of our slavery. Every true Congressman or woman will join the struggle with inflexible determination not to remain alive to see the country in bondage and slavery.”
It is painfully clear that 43 million Ukrainians understand this all too well. Putin is just figuring this out. In addition to underestimating Ukraine’s resolve, Russian forces are not reclaiming their dead or even acknowledging losses.
In early March, well past Putin’s 3 days to take Ukraine game plan, Moscow reported 498 dead and just over 1,500 wounded. That official number was undermined when the Russian newpaper Komsomolskaya Pravda reported much starker numbers - “9,861 Russian soldiers killed in action and another 16,153 had been wounded.” In early February, Putin had 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders in advance of his invasion. The dead and wounded on the Russian side represent 26% of the military forces sent to Ukraine.
Putin can certainly send more; but with a nearly 10% mortality rate and a 25% plus casualty rate, Putin’s end game seems to be headed to extra innings.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukrainian-schoolboy-11-tries-sign-26522162
The photo, taken by the girl’s father, Oleksii Kyrychenko