George Santos, McCarthy's Majority, and Trumpism
or why marginal control of the House is useless
Two days into the new unsworn 118th Congress and McCarthy has been denied the Speakership he has lusted since childhood six times.
Today, January 5th, portends more of the same.
The election of 2022 was a fizzly indictment of the limits of gerrymandering and incumbency in the face of a demographic shift as Generations Y and Z supplant Boomers and Generation X as the political majority in America. People under 35 lean very Left and vote Democratic.
After the dust settled, the GOP won the House of Representatives with a mere 222 seats.
Actually 221 seats, it’s all but certain that in the coming weeks regardless of who becomes Speaker, Representive-Elect George Santos (R-NY) will resign to avoid ethics charges in the House and federal and state indictments for the ultimate in voter fraud. In case you missed it, Santos in an effort to get elected lied about his education, work, home, religion, mother’s death, and a plethora of other things. Compared to Santos, Donald Trump is a piker in the fictional fabrication of one’s past.
As for the Speakership, McCarthy’s bid seems to be dying a sad little death, What was at first simply political vengeance by Trump’s inner circle of congressional co-conspirators to execute his planned coup to stay in power1 has grown into a revolt of election deniers (i.e. Trumpists who think he is still president) and pissed-off nihilists who see their anti-Biden machinations being stunted by a razor thin majority.
To properly control the House of Representatives, a majority of about 240 members is neccesary and more than that is advantageous. In short, one needs to accept that one any given issue there might be some nay votes within one’s own caucus.
Democrats and Republican have both suffered from their antithetical flanks since the mid 1970s. The GOP shunted off its liberal wing in the 1980s and seems to complacently accept its moderates (mostly on abortion, education, and environmental issues). Democrats saw their conservative wing become Republican, which by the Aughts helped strengthen Democratic unity on partisan issues. There is nothing worse politically than having members of your party extoll the other party’s governace of the nation.
But revolts by one’s ideological stalwarts is another thing entirely. Trumpist election deniers want blood for 2020 and won’t stop with McCarthy — anyone who laid blame for the January 6th Insurrection at Trump’s feet is doomed to political failure.
And with 20 or so far-Right malcontents in his caucus, McCarthy’s future is all but finished.
My late April and early May 2022 postsw lay out the congressional co-conspirators machinations vert well, I think.
Pelosi made it work in 2021/2022. With a nearly identical narrow majority in the house and a tie in the senate, the Dems still managed an incredibly productive legislative session.