If Trump does not run in 2024...
what does the GOP presidential field look like?
Donald Trump sold The Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C. According to The Palmer Report, it’s a sign that Trump is not running in 20241.
I cannot disagree.
I wrote as much on November 11th last year, again on November 29th, and once again on January 3rd. In a fit of pique, I wrote again about the problem of a Trump campaign once more January 12th. All before the sale was brokered and completed.
Nothing much has changed other than the fact that Trump sold a hotel at a profit — a rarity for Trump. The optics for a presidential run have been against him since January 6, 2021. And, it’s been a failure to launch situation for Trump since his post-election press conference on November 5, 20202. Anti-democracy coups and childish meltdowns are campaign ads just waiting for him.
The GOP presidential field sans Donald Trump is composed of 4 groups: Trump “Want-to-Be”s, Trump Loyalists, Trump Heir-Apparents, and Never Trumpers.
The Trump “Want-to-Be”s are the politicians trying to sound and be like Trump. It’s mostly Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Senator Josh Hawley (R-AR). Trying to be the new guru for a personality cult is nigh on impossible, but DeSantis and Hawley are merely in a battle for positioning here — they see themselves as heir-apparaents but are closer to being loyalists. Nevertheless, saying and doing crazy crap is what makes them “want-to-bes”.
DeSantis has the edge in both the culture wars and in not being involved in the attempt to overthrow the government. Depending on whether public hearings further implicate Hawley in the January 6th Insurrection (hearings are this June) or if DeSantis loses reelection, Hawley and DeSantis’ prospects could change dramatically.
The Trump Loyalists are people who served in the Trump Administartion who were not fired plus a handful of congressional sycophants. It’s mostly Mike Pompeo, Betsy DeVos, and Nikki Haley. Mark Meadows might have made the list but for January 6th. Most of Trump’s loyalists in the House have been implicated in January 6th or have not espoused any presidential ambitions, so this group is fairly small.
Trump Heir-Apparents are any GOP governor who have never questioned Trump or his policies — think Greg Abbott (R-TX), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Doug Ducey (R-AZ), Greg Ginaforte (R-MT), and Kim Reynoldfs (R-IA) — plus former Vice-President Mike Pence.
Mike Pence, outside of January 6th, is and was Trump’s most fierce loyalist and defender. And he has the best argument as to being the political heir of Trump, but Pence is more black sheep than father’s favorite.
Mike Pence, who could undermine a number of GOP presidential contenders with a press release or sworn testimony, may not be Marc Antony, but neither is he really a Brutus either. He is more a sober Falstaff or a miscast Hamlet.
Sadly, he lacks the range or the ability to chew up the political scenery.
There are a few governors who might test the waters who have deigned to be critical of Trump (or simply pushed back amid criticism) at times such as Mike DeWine (R-OH), Chris Sununu (R-NH), and Brian Kemp (R-GA), but it is almost a certainty that Trump will use his political muscle to destroy their campaigns.
The Never Trumpers have exactly two members right now: Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) and former Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ). Were it not for the Lincoln Project and its financial largesse, this duo would be the Harold Stassens of the 2020s. As it is, they have a built in independent political campaign at their backs.
None of the above matters much as, except for Never Trumpers, the GOP presidential field looks like The Apprentice — a bunch of idiots jockeying for praise while trying to keep their heads low enough to avoid Trump’s narcissistic ire.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-just-tipped-off-that-he-isnt-really-planning-to-run-in-2024/45221/
https://www.c-span.org/video/?477858-1/president-trump-challenges-latest-election-results-claims-voter-fraud