Joe Manchin and his poor poker skills
and why West Virginia ain't that Barn Red.
In 2017, POLITICO Magazine did a profile piece on Senator Joe Manchin1.
Among the personal tidbits was the revelation that the Manchin men played poker at a pool hall called Sam’s in Farmington, West Virginia where Joe grew up. Just guessing that Joe rarely got felted, but it’s unlikely he won much either.
In poker, there is a concept called being “pot committed”. It describes a situation where the odds do not support a player folding under any circumstance. It usually comes about when the player has already made a couple of sizable bets.
President Biden has been trying to get Manchin to stay in the game with entreaties to see the river2 over Build Back Better, voting rights, and other issues. Meanwhile Manchin continues to play short-stacked3 and scared.
Unfortunately, Manchin may have already put so many political chips into play and his reelection odds (and he’ll be 77 years old) are so long that it makes little not the play this hand to its end. Manchin’s bets, in the former of votes to convict Trump in two Impeachment trials, have already marked him as a demonized Democrat in Trumpist eyes — folding his hand now just makes his pile of chips smaller.
As a political realist, it’s not hard to see why Manchin is scared — 2018 was a nightmare for him. Manchin nearly lost reelection that year because Trump put a target on his back.
Now 2024 looms large on the political horizon — when Manchin’s ballot position will will be wedged between the presidential race (all but certain to go Republican) and a battle to replace term limited Republican Governor Jim Justice.
Not that the governor’s race is a sure thing for the GOP.
West Virginia, despite it’s current political landscape, has had just 3 Republican governors in the past 45 years and has not elected and reelected a Republican governor since 1969. No Jim Justice does not count — he was elected in 2016 as a Democrat4.
Mountain State Democrats could make things easier for Senatot Manchin and its gubernatorial nominee by addressing the state’s historically poor voter turnout. And Manchin could help himself by not drawing third party opponents by a frustrated political Left — a certainty if he keeps opposing the Democratic agenda.
And Manchin should support the Democratic agenda more, because no matter how helpful and accommodating Joe Manchin is to Mitch McConnell and company, he will still face GOP opposition come 2024. And switching parties (which Manchin himself has hinted at) is not a good option —Manchin’s Impeachment votes are sure to be a centerpiece in a GOP primary battle.
If Manchin thinks he can protect himself from another 2018 by meekly folding hoping to survive November 5, 2024 with enough chips to stay in the game, he knows nothing of politics or poker.
The point of both games is to play to win and Manchin is playing not to lose.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/joe-manchin-senator-profile-west-virginia-red-state-democrat-bipartisan-214865/
In poker, the last card dealt is known as the river. Once betting ends, the winner is determined by a showdown of each player’s hand.
In poker, the player with the smallest numbers of chips in a poker game.
Justice switched parties 7 months after his inauguration as governor.