Left: Don't overthink NY's 19th Special Election
The worst thing that could happen to the Republican Party in 2022 is to win a majority in the House of Representatives. The best thing that could happen to the GOP would be to win control of the Senate.
The odds of Senator Mitch McConnell becoming Majority Leader again get longer every time Dr. Oz or Hershel Walker open their mouths; and with Senate races in Wisconsin and North Carolina looking more competitive, the money lines for Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) have fallen into that odious +110/-110 area.
Why wouldn’t the GOP want to win the House?
Given the propensity of the GOP to pursue pointless investigations, the pressure to pass the social policy agenda of the far-Right and evangelicals, and the likelihood of the GOP’s crazy caucus (e.g., Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar, et al.) becoming its brand going into 2024, it would be better off staying in the minority and running as political outsiders much like it did following the 1978 elections.
On Tuesday in the Capital Region of New York, Democrat Pat Ryan bested Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election for the 19th Congressional District. The special election was due to its congressman, Antonio Delgado, resigning to be Lt. Governor.1
The 19th District has been competitive for decades and the GOP saw the open seat as a chance to narrow Speaker Pelosi’s narrow majority (it’s only 5 seats) even more. Most political observers saw the win by Ryan as a bellwether of potential for the Democrats to do better than expected in midterms, largely due to the abortion rights.2
And it’s a fact that post-Dobbs, that odious Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the political advantage has swung to the Democrats3; but the breadth of that advantage so far has been beating the point spread more than scoring upsets.
Delgado won the 19th District race in 2018 with 51.4% and Ryan won the special election with just over 51%. The 19th congressional district was viewed as having a slight GOP tilt (R +2); so when Delgado won reelection in 2020 with 54.8%, it was viewed as a slightly safer seat. Actually, it was merely a sign of how skilled a politician Delgado was.
I know this, because I worked for Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) from 1988 to 1991. He had also an ostensibly GOP leaning district that he worked tirelessly to keep Democratic.. And Pallone’s reward came with redistricting whereupon his district was shifted north giving him a far safer seat.
Pat Ryan, who will face Molinaro again in November, will run for reelection in a reformed 19th district that is D+6.
And while Ryan credited abortion rights for his special election win; it’s important to keep in mind that gas prices (and by default diesel fuel prices) have been falling for about two months.
With business inventories rising steadily for over a year (and supply chain issues largely resolved), one can see how the GOP’s messaging about inflation has been muted enough to make issues like abortion rights beat wallet politics.
Former Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul (D) became Governor after Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned. Hocul appointed Delgado to replace her as Lt. Governor.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/pat-ryan-molinaro-new-york-special-00053458
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-special-elections-really-are-signaling-a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats/