Madison Cawthorn losing is not the victory Democrats needed
and there's a Budd problem no one noticed
God blessed Jesse Helms with the political genius of not caring what 49.9% of his fellow Tarheelers thought. Helms, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1972, was successfuly reelected 4 times and only hit the 55% mark once (in 1996). The raw vote margins were close the first four times he ran for the Senate1. In his last hurrah, a loaded field and a recast Democratic candidate made for a wider raw vote margin2.
For the uninitiated that works out to an average of 1,000 votes per county (yep, North Carolina has exactly 100 counties). Divide that number by half and it’s doable from a retail politicking perspective.
While the political Left was aghast in Pennsylvania at the Trumpiest of candidacies being profffered there, there was a moment of joy further south as Madison Cawthorn was bested in a Republican primary in North Carolina.
Considering that Cawthorn himself was district shopping3, that North Carolina was in the midst of its biennial redistricting bingo, and the North Carolina Board of Elections had asserted its authority to determine Cawthorn’s fitness for office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, losing in a primary was the least painful way to go.
Idealists on the Left were the happiest — being rid of an authoritarian anti-democracy advocate elated them like a pop of the champagne cork on New Year’s Eve. Democrats and pragmatists should have been less pleased — the NC GOP had made it clear they were done with Cawthorn’s political sideshow, so Cawthorn’s loss was a desired result for many right of Center. Flipping a congressional district from red to blue, when the Republican party won’t exert any effort for a candidate (usually due to indictments or sex scandals), is a shallow victory at best.
The only people who should have been happy with Cawthorn’s primary loss were members of the North Carolina Election Board. With Cawthorn out, there is no need to render a decision if Cawthorn’s support for the January 6th Insurrection precluded him from being eligible for political office.
A decision against Cawthorn by the Board disqualifying him from elected office would have been a boon to activists in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Ohio where 9 of the 10 known January 6th House conspirators’ districts lie. Alas, a lost opportunity for some realist judgement with political implications.
The important story coming out of North Carolina was Ted Budd’s victory for the GOP Senate nod for the open Senate seat. Budd, an ethically challenged congressman4 from the suburbs and exurbs between Charlotte and Greensboro, won the Senate primary by essentially touting his Trumpist credentials while steadfastly refusing to debate his fellow Republicans. It’s doubtful he’ll debate his Democratic opponent - Cheri Beasley, a former NC Supreme Court Justice and long time jurist - either.
In 1990, Jesse Helms faced former Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt. Helm ran the infamous “white hands” ad to remind North Carolina voters that his opponent was an African-American5. It is a certainty that Budd will do something similar against Beasley, pictured here.
It may help the Democrats that the Tarheel state is less white now than it was in 1990 (60.5% versus 75.6%). However, despite those trending Blue demographics the state continues to produce tight political results and experts still list the race as leaning Republican.
To be continued….
BTW: The ten biggest cities in North Carolina are 25.5% of the state’s total population.
Helms’ raw vote margin was about 118,000 in 1972, 100,000 in 1978, 86,000 in 1984, and 108,000 in 1990.
Helms won by a margin of 339,000 votes in 1996. His Democratic oppnents in a crowded filed netted only 42% of the vote.
Buying or renting a second residence to maximize chances at election or reelection. See also Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/politics/house-committee-ethics-watchdog-republicans-proxy-voting-cpac/index.html
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/09/10/160885683/political-pro-with-race-baiting-past-doesnt-see-it-in-romneys-welfare-charge