Mark Meadows - Conspiratorial Hub Part I
and how gerrymandering made it work
Mark Meadows’ political career began with the North Carolina State Legislature engaging in partisan gerrymandering — a situation that has been ongoing in the Tarheel State for over 30 years1.
Without it, it is unlikely the former Chief of Staff to Donald Trump would have enjoyed such a meteoric rise.
First elected in 2012, Meadows, a Tea Party Republican, benefited from a congressional district that all but guaranteed him 60% of the vote. His moderate Democratic predecessor (former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler) decided against running for relection after the congressional district lines were redrawn by the North Carolina GOP to defeat him2.
And Meadows, himself, opted for retirement in 2020; when it looked like his safe seat was going to be a bit more competitive to help ensure more GOP seats for the North Carolina congressional delegation. As one of then-President Donald Trump’s most loyal and ardent supporters in the House, the last thing Meadows needed was a district that might make his reactionary positions less politically palatable.
Meadows’ viewpoint about not wanting a less safe seat that might cause him to be at political risk come elction day or force him to moderate his political positions is hardly a new trend; but in the new age of Tea Party and Trumpist Republicans, gerrymandering has moved from being mere election day armor to near primary invincibility.
One only need look at the Republican Members of Congress involved in the January 6th Insurrection to see how vital that not only being certain of reelection but also being primary-proof is.
Of the ten Republicans implicated in the attempt to overthrow the government during the counting of the Electoral votes on January 6th, eight had double digit Cook Partisan Voting Index scores, i.e. they were safe Republican seats.
How sure? Marjorie Taylor Greeen (R-GA) is in a +31 GOP District. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) is in a +22 one. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is +20. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) is +25. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) is +13, Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) is +11. Jody Hice (R-GA) is +13. And Mo Brooks (R-AL) is in a +17 GOP District.
Only Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Scott Perry (R-PA) have congressional districts with single digits Republican CPVI scores, R +9 and R +5 respectively. Before thinking that Boebert and Perry disprove the political calculus, consider this:
In 2020, Lauren Boebert beat Rep. Scott Tipton in the GOP primary. Tipton had represented the district for a decade before losing to Boebert. And other than a brief 4 years of Democratic representation3, Colorado’s Third District has been a safe Republican seat for 30 years.
Scott Perry seems like his seat should be competive except that he was elected in 2012 when Pennsylvania’s congressional districts looked like this4:
Yeah, Perry’s was the sprawling dark red one. In 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (due to GOP state legislature malfeasance followed by nonfeasance) redrew his district to make it less sprawling, more compact, and more competitive5.
Perry had the very red district above going into 2018.
In 2018, Perry had the first competive race of his career winning reelection with just over 51%. What saved Perry? Name recognition, money, and the fact that south central Pennsylvania (the greater Harrisburg/York area) has always trended very Republican.
The GOP state legislature acquiesed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court findings and redrew sensible congressional district lines, but not before giving Perry a larger, more sprawling, and more Republican district ahead of the 2020 elections6.
Yep, bigger and redder than ever. Perry was reelected in 2020 over Eugene Pasquale, the former state Auditor General. While it was another close race (53%-47%), it was more a matter of Perry’s tendency to say outrageous, mean, and spiteful things than the district being at risk of going Democratic - his victory was actually outside the R +5 CPVI score.
The only danger Perry and his 8 other Insurrection co-conspirators face is that somewhat less-Trumpist Republicans might challenge them in a primary and again, name recognition and money will likely rule the day
.
Tomorrow: How Trumpist/Tea Party thinking and safe seats made the January 6th Insurrection possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_congressional_districts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heath_Shuler
John Salazar represented the 3rd District from 2007 to 2011 coming in on a Democratic wave in 2006 and was reelected in 2008. Salazr lost in 2010 to Tipton.
By Putitonamap98 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=103609864
By Melvingatez34 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=97299575
By Melvingatez34 Own work, Ibid.