McCarthy's Majority
and how his fate is in their hands
Some days test a politician’s mettle more than others. It usually occurs in a Burkean moment, when a politician opposes the popular will and votes his or her conscience. It becomes decidedly worse when a politician expresses his or her conscience out loud.
In the former, a politician risks reelection. In the latter, a politician risks a primary fight or party leadership position. Just ask Liz Cheney or Kevin McCarthy.
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), daughter of the former Vice-President and Congressman from the Cowboy State, faces multiple challengers in an August 16th primary for having the temerity to point out the January 6th Insurrection was attributable to President Donald Trump and that he had committed an impeachable offense.
Cheney has an impeccable conservative voting record; and outside of the realist moment of calling the attack on the Capitol for what it was — an attempt to overthrow the government, she has never given Wyomingans pause to believe she was anything other than a loyal Republican. Her Burkean moment has already cost her her position as Chair of the House GOP Conference and will likely cost her her seat in Congress.
If Cheney wants to get even with the GOP that has pushed her out, she ought to be the standard bearer bearer for the Libertarian Party in 2024.
Then there is Kevin McCarthy. The House Minority Leader, in a rare moment of realism and pragmatism, called for President Trump to resign shortly after the January 6th Insurrection. The realism was that he clearly knew Trump was responsible: the pragmatism was not wanting to defend Trump in an impeachment debate.
The news that Kevin McCarthy called Trump out and wanted him to resign1 in the days following the January attack was mind-boggling to those who believed that McCarthy was an unquestioning Trump loyalist. Trumpists in his caucus, however, were aghast that he could have been so rational and matter of fact. He quickly returned to his nihilistic moorings calling his recorded statements “hypothetical strategizing”2.
McCarthy has toadied up to Trump and apologized — likely for imagining a Republican party without Trump or a post-Trump political landscape where criticizing Trump does not lead to intra-party attacks and primary challenges.
The GOP caucus in the House has bought McCarthy’s explanation; but given the sell by date of November 8, 2022, it’s a real question if McCarthy can continue being the Republican Leader given the GOP’s cannibalistic tendencies.
Fortunately, Kevin McCarthy has the backing of 68 GOP House members who were realist enough to see that less than 12 hours after an attempt to overthrow the government (Joe Biden was certified in the wee hours of January 7, 2021) the last thing you do is stand up for violent insurrectionists and the man who incited them3.
Unfortunately, his challenger is likely to come from the 61 Republicans who wanted to oust Liz Cheney in the weeks following the January 6th Insurrection. On February 3, 2021, a vote to oust Cheney as Conference Chair failed 145-61 (Cheney was ousted on a voice vote 3 months later).
McCarthy’s majority has roughly 60-70 institutionalists and has about an equal number of Tea Party Trumpists. That leaves about 90 or so Republicans willing to devolve into Trumpism or to push towards a more pragmatic version of conservative governance in the House. One does not need Edmund Burke’s wisdom to how bad caving to the MAGA-mad popular will make for a Kevin McCarthy Speakership.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/22/politics/trump-january-6-responsibility-book/index.html
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/30/1095014837/mccarthy-embodies-house-gops-post-trump-dilemma-and-post-gingrich-history
139 House members voted against certifying Joe Biden as President on January 7, 2021, 68 voted to certify Joe Biden, and 6 did not vote.