Politics and Sports
How McAuliffe started as the dog despite being bet like the favorite
If you bet on football (and to a degree basketball, hockey, and baseball), you know how much an early line can fool you and cost you money.
Often the point spread in the early lines is little more than assigning a value to how much better Team A is than Team B in home versus away situations.
But injuries, a suspension, COVID violations, or the release of a player can negatively affect early lines. Conversely, a trade, signing, or change in eligibility to play can improve a team’s odds of winning. And weather and travel distances can impact scores as well.
Sportsbook develop complicated algorithms to get the right point spread going into a game. Early lines are little more than rough guesses, later lines use mathematical formulas to predict game outcomes.
The point spreads themselves come down to hitting key numbers. Run a 100,000 game simulations between two teams and you’ll get a result that keys in on a score differential of 3, 7, or 10 points about 70% of the time. Throw in a 6 or 4 point difference and you have more than 85% of the potential score differentials.
Political handicappers looked at the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race at some point and made former Governor McAuliffe a six point favorite against Glen Youngkin, a businessman with ties to the Far Right. And no one considered the inherent problems with that early line.
The intra-state political winds favored the GOP
While it’s difficult to debate incumbency in a state that does not allow governors to be reelected, it is not particularly hard to run against party incumbency. Ever since Republican Linwood Holton broke an 84 year string of Democratic governors in 1970, neither party has held the Executive Mansion in Richmond for more than 12 years.
When the sitting Democratic Governor used to be Lt. Governor, your Party’s standard bearer was governor 4 years ago, and your candidate for Attorney General had been the incumbent for 8 years, it’s hard to attract independent voters, who tend to like candidates with “change” as a part of their political message.
In 2013, the Democrats had won all three statewide political races. In 2017, they also won all three statewide races and won control of the General Assembly and State Senate in 2019. No party had won the governor’s race three time in a row in 32 years
The national political winds also favored the GOP
As I wrote in my last newsletter, Virginia has only elected a governor of the same political party as the President once in the last 40 years (2013).
One of the cardinal rules of sports betting is to respect trends more than winning streaks. Here the trends favored the Republicans and the streak of neither party breaking more than two terms in the governor’s chair had been going on for 8 straight elections.
Northam’s blackface photo and Fairfax sexual assault accusations hurt the Democratic base
In February 2019, two scandal imploded Democratic governance in Virginia.
McAuliffe and virtually every Democratic group spoke out against both Northam and Lt. Gov. Fairfax and called for their resignations. But a small potatoes admission by Attorney General Herring (he had dressed up as a rapper in college in 1980) effectively fizzled the outrage as the accusations denied anyone the moral high ground. And when the Democrats retook control of the General Assembly eight months later, priorities shifted. But the scandal left a substantial part of the Democratic base discontented and unenthusiastic.
And then came COVID
Without COVID, maybe the Democrats in Richmond could have done something to reinvigorate its disillusioned base. But in 2020, the COVID pandemic became political agenda in every state.
The COVID lockdown tied the hands of governors for the first half of 2020, and missteps by states in trying to reopen businesses in the latter half of 2020 made all but the most Trumpian governors cautious. On the other end of the political spectrum, the most cautious and least aggressive governor about reopening his state was Dr. Ralph Northam. As governor, Northam resisted every effort to reopen Virginia too soon or against CDC guidelines.
With the foregoing in play, McAuliffe was a 1 point favorite at best and should have handicapped as a 2.5 point dog. He certainly did not have the projected advantage a 6, 7, 10, or 14 point spread limit brings.
Why? Two reasons.
The jobs and economy message had, due to COVID, flipped to the GOP’s advantage in Virginia. Anyone looking at 2022 gubernatorial races needs to assess the jobs/economy v. public health dynamic and develop messaging to win elections in their particular state.
And the contested primary in Virginia had all but fated party nominees to being the losers in the last 5 elections and should have been an integral part of the political algorithm.
In 2005, the GOP had a contested primary and Democrat Tim Kaine wins.
In 2009, the situation flips and Republican Robert McDonnell wins.
In 2013, Terry McAuliffe, who was uncontested in a primary, edged out Republican Ken Cuccinelli with a plurality in a three way race. It is worth noting that a significant percentage of Republicans remained undecided leading up to the convention that nominated Cuccinelli in 2013.
In 2017, both parties had contested primaries but the GOP primary contest between Ed Gillespie and Corey Stewart was much closer and more far more bruising.
In 2021, the GOP opted for a convention over a primary and Terry McAuliffe won in a contested primary.
And just like the sports handicapper who tells you a quarterback plays poorly against the nickel defense, that a pitcher’s WHIP is worse at home, or that a basketball team wins 65% of its games when player X starts, there is this:
Seven of the last ten governors had won statewide races before they were elected governor. The three without statewide wins had statewide name recognition and beat Virginia Attorney Generals. Since 1981, Virginia AGs are 3-6 when running for governor in the Old Dominion.
And while McAuliffe had won his race for governor eight years earlier, it was in no small part due to a split in the non-Democratic/Democratic leaning vote that year.
In 2013, Terry McAuliffe won with 47.8% of the vote and Ken Cuccinelli (R) and Robert Sarvis (L) garnered 45.2% and 6.5% respectively. Fifty-one point seven percent of Virginia voters had rejected McAuliffe’s candidacy in that election.
Eight years later, he drew about the same percentage of the electorate in 2021.
Dogs win in sports because they play harder, smarter, and better than their opponents. Favorites lose by ignoring fundamentals and failing to adjust during game time.
Take a look at the aggregate polling in 2021.
2021 Youngkin McAuliffe polling
McAuliffe never had aggregate poll strength over 50%. In fact, he hovered around 45-48% consistently.
McAuliffe was a dog from Day One but campaigned like a favorite.
Great views. In addition, voter enthusiasm needs to be taken into consideration. The Virginia GOP held numerous rallies and events in the months leading to the election. GOP voters were excited, and actively recruiting friends and neighbors to turn out to vote. As expected, early Absentee (both in person and mail) voted predominantly Democratic, and in person Election day voting skewed Republican.
An additional topic that drew immense support for Youngkin was the gaff by McAullife in September stating that parents didn't need to be involved in school curriculum decisions. Not exactly what he actually said, but that is what voters heard.
And Youngkin pouring in over $20 Million of his own money certainly helped. The Republicans poured large amounts of money into ads in markets that had traditionally voted Democratic, and it helped galvanize their base.
Republicans got their voters out, and Democrats were less excited. An electorate with a 25% base with 85-90% turnout will beat a base of 55% that only turns out 35-40% of it's supporters.