Polls, Messaging, and Raw Data

or vote for better results

I received an email from the the Democratic Governors Assocation asking me for money late last week. I received dozens of such entreaties asking for my cold hard cash daily nowadays, but this email stood out.

This one advised that Charlie Crist (D) who has been in a neck and neck gubernatorial race in Florida with incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is actually leading in the poll 53%-47%. Not only is this the first poll I have seen putting Crist with a lead outside the margin of error, it’s the first one that made sense.

Why? Well, DeSantis won in 2018 with a plurality and has, as governor, done nothing to expand his base or even shown himself to be a steady hand administratively. It’s been mostly political stunts, Trumpian bullying, and surprising ineptitude. That doesn’t get one across the 50% line easily.

So why so many polls showing a much tighter race or DeSantis with a lead?

Simple, the GOP has been commissioning poorly designed polls showing Republican candidates in the lead or slightly ahead but within margin of error.

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

BREAKING NEWS / ALERT (🚨): GOP Polling Firms Are Systematically Releasing Polls Favoring Republicans to Dishearten Democratic Voters and Influence National Polling Averages; Many Key Races Are Closer Than You Think or Even Favoring Democrats 👉 Disregard all polling and *vote*.

POLITICO @politico

The midterms are closing with a significant divide between some of the independent polling and polls released by GOP-affiliated firms https://t.co/QHwjS0k3p9

The effect of this tactic is that polling averages, something journalists use, pushes the political narrative we have — the GOP looks to do well in midterms.

The problem with polling averages is not that they are misleading (they are); it’s that they stand in stark contradiction to early voting data¹ which shows Democrats doing very well² — as in better than 2018 and 2020.

In the past few days, Democratic messaging has shifted to the much more conventional and usually successful messaging.

That messaging sounds a lot like this

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VOTE LIKE IT MATTERS NOW. VOTE LIKE IT WILL MATTER SIX MONTHS FROM NOW, TWO YEARS FROM NOW, AND SIX YEARS FROM NOW.

1. https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/early-vote-totals-point-toward-record-breaking-turnout-for-midterm-elections

2. https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/early-vote-totals-point-toward-record-breaking-turnout-for-midterm-elections