Putin's war at 200 days is going badly

and it's worse at home in Moscow

Vladimir Putin is facing losses in the battlefield in eastern Ukraine as a combination of global resources and Ukrainian military resolve have pushed the Russian military from thousand of miles of occupied territory.

While that is certainly a reason for optimism, it’s worth noting that the bigger story is the demoralization and stress induced fatigue being endured by Russian troops.¹ The choices facing Putin’s army are becoming grim and desperate.² It’s no longer “fight, freeze, or flight”, it’s “flee or die.” That choice leads to a certain level of suicidal dangerousness.

Ukraine’s successes right now are critical heading in the long winter. Kviv, the Capital of Ukraine, is at 50 degrees north latitude (outside of Alaska, that’s Canada). Odesa, which is in southernmost Ukraine, is at 46 degree north latitude —- think north of Minneapolis-St. Paul.³ The Russian military has had successes in winter campaigns, although not of late.

Whatever military advantage is to be expected for the Russian troops, who clearly don’t want to be there; Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, set out some stark realism for Russia in a broadcast on Sunday:

“Read my lips. Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you. Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your ‘friendship and brotherhood.’ ”

The occupation of Ukraine by Russia is not going to be negotiated to a draw anytime soon, if at all.

If one might think that the oligarchs in Russia might unbend Russian President Vladmimir Putin from the pretzel knot he has created for himself⁴, think again.⁵ Putin is as tone-deaf and stubborn about Ukraine⁶ as Donald Trump has been about the 2020 election.

1. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/13/world/ukraine-russia-war?unlocked_article_code=54BjrNE5M56nDoOt5j1bcmc0Y30oVDK56nPtLDpwQXSNnhnXGTMYiDaUAm7MbN9XzSOJOyyiXgZHi2FuxyovwSIlyF46gBMxpv-ZVoeV2BXzFKADmwQkZzWH40QuDSaQ1Vws5tkba3MZJLMrIQfhtnxV_RgXoGEoHH7NcAx7E0MnHYTQOiz5xGRoS9tw4NFMQGPdUr4UpYIpct57aOQs3MZfr4iRyknor5ZziXgeMxZC2j8-RbcvEZNnxGOSdQxKQMyH0db2X95FJSXJsYKanJ3WbOIsdov4rfq55ToP8t-eJZaTEoDkAXthrj-IxeD3sjB4OdoBHU1FX_O_x5DbFNuAIQ&smid=share-url

2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/11/kharkiv-liberated-retreat-izyum-russia/

3. I lived through two winters in Rock County, Minnesota (SW corner), winter lasts well into May.

4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/17/ukraine-war-opposition-rises-russia/

5. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/12/russia-ukraine-war-defeat-opposition-putin-stab-in-the-back-conspiracy-theory-far-right/

6. https://wapo.st/3BbYxOI