Texas's Abortion Law is a gift to the Left
Ditto for Mississippi's
Derrick Bell or the person who coined the term “Critical Race Theory” is a political idiot. The same goes for the person who came up with the slogan “Defund the Police”.
Nuance and intellectual integrity have no place on bumper-stickers or in internet memes.
A friend of mine was bemoaning the potential effect of SB8, Texas’s bill. As a realist, I said I was less concerned about a law that clearly violates Roe v Wade (1972) than with a Mississippi law that is arguably consistent with it and Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1991). (Both cases, Texas’s and Mississippi’s are before the Supreme Court this term.) The political benefit of getting an unfavorable ruling from a lopsidedly conservative Supreme Court is astronomical.
As a general rule congressional races tend to be local; senate races more national; and whereas gubernatorial races, which center for the most part on jobs and the economy more than crime or education, as springboards for presidential campaigns.
CRT, as the conservatives have abbreviated “critical race theory” for their unenlightened followers, may have swayed some voters; but Governor-elect Glen Youngkin of Virginia was campaigning on anything other than social policy before his debates with former Governor Terry McAuliffe in October. If more people knew Youngkin’s views on race, abortion, guns, et al., before then, Youngkin would have been trailing in the polls versus surging on the basis of a single issue.
For nearly a half century, the litmus test for evangelical voters and conservatives is and always has been abortion.
And while abortion rights advocates and activists send alarming emails, texts, and a few actual pieces U.S. mail decrying the demise of Roe, some political realism gets forgotten.
Outside of the a few states in the middle (CO, NE, and NM), abortions were largely legal on the East and West Coasts and in a couple of Southern States (MS and AL) before Roe. And with 20 odd states allowing abortions before Roe, there were about 16 abortions per 1,000 live births in 1972. Today, there are less than 14. The highwater mark was nearly 30 abortions per 1,000 in 1979 - that was over 40 years ago.
In the current political milieu, Democrats have generally treated social policy issues like bridal registry finery instead of the plates, cups, and bowls used every day. Worse still, abortion rights have been akin to a wedding gift gravy bowl. Barely seen and never used.
The Democrats used to not fear social policy. In the 60s and 70s, they actually embraced it.
Bumper sticker philosophies and right wing memes have energized the Republicans’ base and left Democrats doing little more than shaking their heads and responding with “No one is buying this, right?”.
Bought with the same mindset as buying butter on sale - even if you already have it, you can always use more.
While Glen Youngkin is unlikely to get far with his anti-CRT proselytizing (the state Senate is controlled by the Democrats), his economic views will certainly play havoc on Virginia’s economy. The Republicans rely on social policy issues to get them in office and the Democrats hope the Right’s economic policies will help kick them out.
It is decidedly political malpractice to hope for economic misery to remind voters why they should have eschewed reactionary views on education, health care, and criminal justice. And playing perpetual defense is not gaining the Democrats any ground.
In a post-Roe America, the politics that hindered the Left and abortion rights advocates for a generation after Roe1 could create a pro-active rather than reactive political arena for candidates left of Center.
In next year’s gubernatorial races, the Right will rely on arcane Laffer-esque theories on how to grow their state’s economies and simultaneously pay its bills (i.e. “Free tax cuts, we’ll bill your grandchildren!”) to cull voters and they will throw some shade at the Democrats over CRT , police reform, or whatever other push poll policy nonsense they can contrive. The foregoing will be countered with little more than common sense and dribbles of Keynesianism by the Left.
If abortion restrictions are constitutional, then Democratic candidates for governor and state legislative seats will have the best wedge issue since mandatory school busing.
The Right knows that outside of evangelicals and ultra-conservatives, anti-abortion positioning is an electoral loser for the GOP. More 60% of Americans support abortion rights and even among self-identified Republicans the percentage supporting pro-choice policies is well over 40%.
“My opponent wants to outlaw abortions regardless of the situation or circumstance” is a better stump speech than “Well, Roe v Wade is in danger in the courts.” And the Right and the GOP are fearful of being caught in the position of having to admit the former versus message their way out of the latter.
While Roe being upheld would be a pleasant surprise, it is more likely that Mississippi’s statute stands (and Texas gets slapped back for its legal and constitutional nonsense).
The Left shouldn’t let the Right sell its regulatory scheme as consistent with Roe v. Wade. The Mississippi law is a legal map for making abortion for nearly impossible.
Wave the white flag and declare abortions rights dead, the right to privacy over, and declare that Mississippi just put bureaucrats in charge of family planning. Then start telling voters the only way to reverse it is to elect Democrats in the Magnolia State.
And repeat for the other 29 states that are having statehouse races in 2022.
It was not uncommon to have politicians be labelled as “pro-abortion” before “choice” language made it into political linguistics. And, it was not until 1989 before “pro-choice” became a widely accepted label.