The 2020 Autopsy Part III
or why Trump really lost 3 critical states
In July 2020, I wrote an article on Third Party Voting and its potential impact on the 2020 election. I opined that absent a 2% Third party vote, Trump had the electoral advantage1. I was wrong, 1.79% proved to be enough to erase Trump’s edge.
Going into 2020, Donald Trump had a fairly straight-forward political road map to reelection - win his 2016 states (plus Maine’s 2nd congressional district).
The problem was that Trump’s closest 3 states PA, MI, and WI) had enough Electoral College value (36) to bring his total down to exactly 270, which left no room for error. Worse still, beyond PA, MI, and WI, four other states (FL, NC, AZ, and GA) plus Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district were sufficiently close in 2016 that depending on the Democratic nominee, November 3, 2020 was going to be nail biter not a blowout.
And it’s apparent that neither Trump nor the GOP took the time to analyze the Libertarian Party’s surge in voting strength in 2016. More costly was the assumption that Right of Center voting was competitive with the Democrats.
The Libertarian Party which had been mired in presidential election performances of less than one half of 1 percent for nearly 30 years saw its voting surge dramatically in 2012. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, received nearly 1.3 million votes - just shy of 1 percent of the popular vote.
But even if the Republican and the Libertarian votes were combined in 2012, it yields slightly less than 48.2% of the vote. A calculation of the GOP/Libertarian vote since 2000 yields less than absolute majorities in five out of 6 presidential elections: 48.26% (2000), 51.2% (2004), 46.1% (2008), 48.19% (2012), and 49.38% (2016), and 48.08% (2020) for an average of 48.53%. The Democrats over the same 6 elections averaged over 50% (50.03% to be exact).
And, the 2004 GOP/Libertarian vote was more about George W Bush and 9/11 than a sudden realignment in the American electorate. If there’s been a realignment, it has been that the Democrats have achieved a majority status that but for voter suppression and gerrymandering renders the GOP to also ran status.
A doubling of the 2012 Libertarian vote might have been a rejection of Trump as the GOP standard bearer by anti-Trump Republicans. A trebling of the Libertarian vote in 2016, however, was an indication that a significant percentage of its vote was Democratic-leaning Independents who could not “hold their noses” and vote for Hillary Clinton2. The 2012 and 2020 results (0.99% and 1.18% respectively) don’t yield another logical conclusion to explain it.
The failure to assume that the true Libertarian vote was likely half of its actual 2016 performance meant that an already unpopular President Trump, even before COVID, was facing an electorate in which more than 51% of the country would not be voting for him. And if the Democrats could capture those Democratic leaning but anti-Hillary Independents, Trump’s reelection was likely doomed.
Volunteers to come into the room in January 2020 and say “President Trump, even if two-thirds of Libertarian voters from 2016 vote for you this year, you are still looking at being barely over 48%, and the metadata of approval/disapproval polls tells us that’s likely to be your high water mark. Unless we can contain the Libertarian vote in a lot of states, you’re in trouble.” were probably sparse.
Of Donald Trump’s 7 closest states (GA, NC, AZ, FL, WI, PA, and MI) in 2016, the Libertarian vote exceeded the Trump’s margin in 5 of them (Note: it also exceeded the Margin in NE-2).
There is no doubt, Trumpists would point out that Trump did better than 48% in all but one state. True, but despite Trump beating his popular vote percentage in 6 or his 7 closest states, his net improvement from 2016 to 2020 was abysmal.
It is noteworthy that of the 6 states that had margin swings toward the Democrats, Biden won 5 of them; and with the exception of North Carolina and Wisconsin, the margin swing exceeded the Libertarian party 2020/2016 differential.
The net effect of all of this is that Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger missed the opportunity for a uniquely sardonic answer to President Trump’s request to find 11,780 votes for him3.
“Sure thing, Mr. President. They’re probably in that 62,229 votes that went to Jo Jorgenson. I kind of expected the Libertarians were trouble, when Senator Perdue couldn’t break 50%. Now, Senator Perdue has a runoff in 3 days because a right-wing podcaster thought Perdue was more pro-Trump than pro-Georgia4.”
The results in Georgia, where Trump’s vote deficit was overshadowed by Libertarian Jo Jorgenson’s votes, was replicated in Arizona and Wisconsin.
Take a look.
Jo Jorgenson, a professor at Clemson University, drew vote totals in AZ, GA, and WI that were 4.9 times, 5.3 times, and 1.9 times bigger respectively than the raw vote difference between Biden and Trump.
The nearly osmotic assimilation between Republicans and Libertarians from Reagan’s election to the 2016 Republican National Convention has become increasingly impermeable since Donald Trump’s election. Donald Trump, who twice failed to break the GOP’s average of the popular vote since 2000 (47.41%), and his authoritarian messaging have served to boost the Libertarian Party brand ever since.
Since 2017, Libertarians and like-minded Republicans have shown a penchant for upending the election chances for Trump loyalists. Just ask David Perdue.
And the worst of it is, they revel in player spoiler. Just ask Matt Bevin, former Kentucky Governor. And purposefully so when an authoritarian Republican is a candidate. Just ask Kris Kobach.
Tomorrow. Part IV of the Autopsy5.
https://uspoliticsreconsidered.quora.com/THE-REELECTION-OF-DONALD-TRUMP-PART-II
For the record, I voted for Hillary Clinton, fully supported her platform, and found her to be a better candidate than her husband (she is clearly more liberal), but there is still something that rubs and grates about her.
Trump called Raffensperger on January 2, 2021. The conversation was recorded and witnesses were present on both ends of the call.
Shane Hazel drew 115,039 (2.4%) in the November 3, 2020 primary for incumbent David Perdue’s Senate seat. Hazel’s strong showing kept pro-Trump Perdue from getting 50% of the vote. In the January 5 the runoff, Jon Ossoff beat Perdue.
NOTE: I use Wikipedia extensively to get data as well as confirm information. So much so that I make monthly contribution to support the website and its work.