The Left shouldn't overthink Kansas Abortion Amendment vote
The Right should definitely think about it
Just so we are clear, this is what Kansans voted down on Tuesday, August 2nd.
22. Regulation of abortion. Because Kansans value both women and children, the constitution of the state of Kansas does not require government funding of abortion and does not create or secure a right to abortion. To the extent permitted by the constitution of the United States, the people, through their elected state representatives and state senators, may pass laws regarding abortion, including, but not limited to, laws that account for circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest, or circumstances of necessity to save the life of the mother.
In short, the amendment would have allowed the state legislature to ban all abortions in all circumstances. It failed with 59% opposed and 41% supporting it.
Considering the relatively strong GOP lean of the state, one might have expected a far closer result.
How Republican? In the past 6 presidential elections, the GOP averaged 58.12% of the vote. It’s no Oklahoma, Idaho, South or North Dakota, but it bleeds red consistently. It last went blue in 1964 (before that 1936)1. The Democratic ticket averaged 38.45%. Only Biden and Obama broke the 40% mark (in 2020 and 2008 respectively).
Donald Trump got 56.16% in 2016 and 56.21 in 2020. The GOP ticket did almost 1% worse with Trump on the ballot2.
It does not take much extrapolating to see that about 17% of GOP voters supported the pro-choice position. (Yeah, there might have been a handful of pro-life Democrats, but it would barely form an intersect on a Venn diagram.)
Seventeen percent of GOP voters is about 29.45% of the vote that goes out quadrennially and supports the Republican presidential ticket. And to be clear, this is very problematic for the Kansas GOP.
Why? Well, the amendment in question was voted on during the Kansas primaries. That means just registered Republicans and registered Democrats got to vote. The Sunflower State’s 560,309 unaffiliated voters3 did not have a say in this.
Lets’ take a closer look. According to the Kansas Secretary of State’s website, there are 1,929,972 registered voters as of July 2022. In addition to the aforementioned unaffiliated voters, there are 851,882 Republicans, 495,574 Democrats, and 22,207 Libertarians.
In a general election, Republicans account for 44% of registered voters. In a closed primary, however, the GOP accounts for 63% of eligible voters. Forget 17% and 29.45%. More than 22% of GOP voters supported the pro-choice position on the Kansas abortion amendment — that’s about 35% of reliably red voters voting against what has been part of the GOP party line for more than 40 years.
For the Democrats, it’s a sign that they ought to be organizing in the suburbs of Wichita, Overland Park, Olathe, Kansas City, Topeka, and Lawrence.
For the GOP, it’s a sign that there are enough moderate voters within the GOP to upend its fealty to crony capitalism and the religious Right — and they might do it by voting for Libertarians or Democrats.
As Dorothy might say “Oh my!”.
BONUS: If the above were not problematic enough, the GOP Jayhawkers might take a look at the growing Libertarian trend in the Land of Oz. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, the Libertarian ticket did marginally better than the national average (a few hundredths of a percent). In 2012, 2016, and 2020, however; the Libertarian ticket vastly outperformed its popular vote percentage4. It’s unlikely to make a difference in 2024, but it may have an effect on statewide races in the future. Just ask Kris Kobach.
Kansas voted Democratic in presidential elections in 1896, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1936, and 1964.
The GOP standard bearers for 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 received 59.09% of the vote in Knasas. Trump’s performance in 2016 and 2020 brought it down 0.97%.
July 2022 voter registration numbers from Kansas Secreatray of State website
In 2012, the Libertarian ticket won 1.8% of the Kansas vote (0.99% nationally). In 2016, it was 4.68% (3.28%). In 2020, it was 2.23% (1.18%).
Independent voters were allowed to vote on the amendment but nothing else.