The Myth of the Undecided Voter
but that doesn't stop Corporate Media from selling the concept
Quiz
Who is an undecided voter in 2024?
A) A Democratic-leaning Independent who supported Gary Johnson1 in 2016, voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but split his/her vote in the 2022 midterms for at least one GOP candidate.
B) Someone who voted for Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
C) A pro-choice Republican at odds with the Dobbs decision and appalled by the anti-abortion measures being passed by GOP-controlled states.
D) A person who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Corporate Media keeps picking D for focus groups, TV panels, and interviews.
Unless D walks into the room and says “January 6th and finding out that Trump stole top secret classified documents ended my support for him”, D really isn’t undecided.
The only real undecideds are people who voted for Obama in 2012, Biden in 2020, but not Hillary in 2016. That’s rough 3% of the vote.
And while there may have been some buyer remorse between November 2020 and July 2024, the same cannot be said before 2020. That 3% is largely Democratic-leaning Independents and with a few Non-partisan Independents sprinkled in (the size of this group is probably infinitetismal).
For those too young to vote for Obama, Hillary, and/or Biden before now, the voter registration data suggests these voters are overwhelmingly not simply new Harris voters but new Democratic voters (as opposed to Democratic-leaning Independents).
Since 2000, the GOP national ticket has garnered an average of 47.4% of the vote. Take out their one election with over 50% in 2004 and the average drops to 46.74%. On the Democratic side, Team Blue has averaged 50.03%. Take out Obama’s 2008 results and the average dips down to 49.46%. The percentage differential for all six election is a 2.63%. Take out the best performances for each party and it’s 2.72%.
It’s worth mentioning that the Green Party (basically communitarians on the Left) cost the Democrats 2.74 % of the vote in 20002 and about 1% in 2016. But what costs the Democrats dearly in 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2004 was not capturing Democratic leaning Independents.
Make no mistake about it, there are no undecideds within Corporate Media’s definition, but there are critically needed voters who tend to vote Blue often, but must be motivated to do so. At least until 2028 when the overwhelmingly Democratic voting Millennials and Post-Millennials will, very likely, represent nearly half of the US voter population.
I’ve written extensively about these voters who disliked Hillary Clinton so much that they voted against their interests.
Ralph Nader’s name and reputation among Democrats from the Boomer Generation kept the Green Party vote percentage high for minor party performance.