The Peach State Report Part I
or why the Demographic death march is besting Sherman's March to Sea
Most political scientists are split over whether there has been political realignment or paradigm shift in Georgia.
Realists are not split: politics follows demographics and neither a critical election (i.e. realignment) nor a cognitive change (fundamental shift in politics) explains things very well.
In 2010, Georgia had two Republican Senators and an 8-5 delegation gerrymandered to split favoring the GOP. The delegation is currently slightly more even 7-6, but it now has two Democratic Senators.
What changed?
Georgia’s presidential elections, 2004 aside, have been somewhat competitive and progressively more so since 2008. Outside of presidential contests, the GOP’s electoral edge has slipped away significantly since 2010.
David Perdue won an open Senate seat in 2014 with 52.9% and then in 2021 he lost in a runoff with 49.4%. Perdue’s Senate colleague was Johnny Isakson, who was elected to an open Senate seat in 2004 and won with 57.9%. His 2010 reelection wasn’t too shabby either (58.4%). In 2016, he suffered significant drop-off on his election to a third term with 54.8%. His sudden decision to resign his seat in 2019 may have been for health reasons, but his timing suggest that he was trying to keep his seat in Republican hands.
In 2018, Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) through underhandedness, nefarious maneuvers, and brazen cheating stole the election for Georgia governor. His “success”, though, netted him a mere 50.2% of the vote and he had a vote margin of less than 55,000 votes.
In 2016, Donald Trump barely made it over the the 50% line. In 2020, he lost by the narrowest of margins netting just 49.24% of the vote. A roughly 1% drop in his election percentage from 2016 to 2020 cost Trump the state and its 16 Electors.
As bad as 2020 was for Georgia Republicans, 2021 was far worse. The Democrats in the Peach State had a banner year.
First, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won in Senate election runoffs on January 5, 2021. And while the margins were thin (1.2% and 2%, respectively), the raw vote margins showed a significant swing in Georgia to Left of Center. Ossoff’s margin was just over 55,000 votes and Warnock’s was just over 93,000. If one accepts the premise that Kemp, in his position as Secretary of State, jiggered voter registration to his advantage (he did and it’s not debatable), the Democratic edge has been in place for a while.
And this past November it showed. Democrats, and more significantly progressives within the Party, won dozens of races in November 30th runoffs1.
As to what happened to the Georgia electorate to change what once was a 10 point Republican/Conservative edge a decade ago to a slim 1–2 point advantage for Democratic edge in the last few election cycles is pure demographics.
In 2010, Georgia had a population that was 59% White. In 2020, that percentage is barely above 50%. And while the African-American population increased over the last decade from 30% of the to just over 32%, the real growth has been in the state’s Asian-American, Hispanic, and multi-racial populations. They account for nearly 20% of the population.
The Georgia Republican Party has, in response to this population change, relied on suppression tactics, registration gamesmanship, and a bizarre meritocracy where only white candidates are given access to the political ladder.
The prognosis for 2022 looks promising as the GOP’s “Whites Only” strategy continues to get burned
Tomorrow…Part II and the GOP gubernatorial cannibalistic feeding frenzy.
Georgia uses a “Jungle Primary” system in which a runoff election is held if no candidate passes 50% on Election Day.