The "Political" Apprentice

or How Celebrity Trumpists are failing

Aug 22, 2022

New Jerseyan Mehmet Oz, aka “Dr. Oz”, is - not so surprisingly - losing by double digits in his quest to be the next senator from Pennsylvania.1 He is trailing badly to Lt. Governor John Fetterman, a 6 foot 9 inch tattooed man with a goatee, who could get into any motorcycle club without filling out an application.

Not really unexpected though — one would think that with Dr. Oz’s wealth (he owns 10 homes, at least 5 of which are in America), Mehmet would have bought a condo in Rittenhouse Square, Point Breeze, or really flaunted his wealth and bought a home in Gladwyne.

And maybe if Oz renounced his Turkish citizenship2 as well. He announced a rebrand that includes forgetting who Donald Trump is,3 but sadly that won’t solve the problem of his doing campaign ads and interviews from his multi-million dollar home in New Jersey.

And “Dr Oz” is not the only celebrity Trumpist Senate candidate who is flailing.4

In Georgia, former NFL fullback Hershel Walker has consistently trailed Senator Raphael Warnock. An AJC poll5 shows him down by 3 points as does an InsiderAdvantage/Fox 56 poll. Another poll by SurveyUSA7 has Warnock ahead by 9 points. SurveyUSA has been consistently rated as an “A” polling organization by fivethirtyeight.com. 8

Polling aside, Walker’s missteps, misstatements, and lies9 over the past 6 months have surpassed his 41 fumbles in his 12 years in the NFL - enough to cement the conclusion of the poor choice it was to recruit him to run. More worrisome, though, is Walker’s past issues with domestic violence (he held a gun to his now ex-wife’s head and threatened to kill her) and his lack of candor over the number of children he has had out of wedlock. Not exactly the brand one wants to brings against a minister.10

Then there is J.D. in the Buckeye State. J.D. Vance, author11, political commentator, and venture captalist, is running against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) for an open Senate seat. Vance, who was viewed as a early favorite to win after the Spring primaries, was trailing Ryan by 3 points in July and is now down 11 points.12

Ryan’s success seems to be little more than turning traditionally Republican sub-cultures like police and veterans into “in-play” constituencies.13

The conventional thinking of bringing well-heeled names into a statewide races is that there is a two-fold adavantage: better, and often self-financed, fundraising and instant name recognition.

The downside is that the well-heeled have a bad habit of not understanding regular people, coming off as elitist, and a rather assumptive view that political bumps in the road are no different than other kinds of bumps in life.

Owning ten homes, none of which are in Pennyslvania, and calling a vegetable tray “crudite” has severely undercut Oz’s TV persona as “your other doctor”.

Walker’s mental health is being openly questioned in Georgia and his ex-wife is running ads for Warnock. The excuses that work for errant (and sometimes criminally so) sports stars, rarely work in the political arena.

And J.D. Vance may have remembered what it was like growing up poor in a Rust-Belt steel town14, but he doesn’t seem to have mastered its lessons. Tim Ryan, much like Raphael Warnock, is driven by his experiences growing up as part of the working poor. And Fetterman, who grew up fairly privileged, has spent most of his life working to help poor people - it's what drove him to Braddock, PA.

But celebrity candidacies running with Trump’s endorsement is not the problem.

The problem is political realism about Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

In 2016, Georgia had two barn red conservative Republican senators and was reliably Red presidentially speaking.

Since 2000, the Republican presidential average in the Peach State has been 53.3%. In the last 4 elections, that percentage has dropped to 51.37% and Donald Trump won 50.77% and 49.24% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. The Democrats have averaged 46.82% since 2008.

In addition, Trump’s presence on the ballot added a strong Libertarian vote dynamic; and in the case of the Trump-endorsed Walker, a Libertarian on the ballot is keeping Walker from getting close to the 50% line.

Outside of 2016, Pennsylvania has been farirly Blue presidentially. Before 2016, it last went Republican in 1988. It also had two liberal Republican Senators in 1988. It currently has one fairly progressive Democratic Senator and a mainstream Republican one, who is definitely not a Trumpist.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania with a mere plurality (48.17%) in 2016 and barely improved in 2020 (48.84%). Mehmet Oz and the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate (and full blown Trumpist) Doug Mastriano, are flailing poll-wise15 for no other reason than over-estimating the political pull of Trumpism. Pennsylvania is not the strongest Blue state, but it is not Ohio either.

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Ohio is more than just reliably Republican, it’s the GOP’s tipping point state. Before 2020, he last time the GOP lost a presidential election but won Ohio was 1960. Vance shouldn’t be down in the polls in August, he should be up by about 12 points16.

So why is Vance trailing Ryan? The same reason Walker and Oz are behind in the polls. Inexperienced candidates do poorly in statewide races17. Neither Trump nor Trumpism has grasped that.

And while the GOP could manage to win 1 of the 3 races, it’s unlikley they will win all three. The Democrats, on the other, have a shot at beating a trifecta of celebrity Trump apprentices.

But, it’s only August.

US Politics Reconsidered

The "Political" Apprentice

or How Celebrity Trumpists are failing

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