The political calculus of Vance meets the basic math of Walz
The calculus that led to Trump’s pick of Senator JD Vance is a formula of “find me someone I endorsed who actually won” multiplied by a level of sychophantry rivalling Senator Lindsay Graham’s played out on a roller coaster curve of defending Trump for the next 4 years. There’s probably a beard variance built into that as well.
The math of selecting Governor Tim Walz is far easier.
First, he’s a governor of a consistent Blue State.
Second, his state is in firm Democratic control while he’s campaigning. Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Andy Beshear of Kentucky dropped out because running for VP created in-state complications. The last thing you need is a side story.
Third, Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for both Harris and Trump. Not picking Shapiro means Harris has an in-state surrogate for the Keystone State 24/7.
Fourth, picking a Senator as a running mate is not only stale but it’s inordinately safe. If states are the laboratories of democracy, you might want its future coming from there.
The U.S. Senate has morphed into a body of wealth, power, and self-importance — Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona fell off the VP list because the first question is always “How did you in here?”. Not particularly emblematic of the Democratic Party.
Fifth, Soldier and Teacher is a winner — just ask Shakespeare.1 Add in football coach and one can see why Tim Walz is a nightmare for the GOP.
Walz hunts, fishes, teaches, coaches, and leads — its’ a bumper sticker in the making.
But forget all that.
What does Kamala Harris really need in the next 90 days?
A running mate who can go into Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and get introduced by someone who knows him personally. That would be Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, and Josh Shapiro.
He also knows Roy Cooper (Governor of North Carolina), Katie Hobbs (Governor of Arizona), Michelle Lujan Grisham (Governor of New Mexico), and Jared Polis (Governor of Colorado).
If Trump keeps falling in the polls, he also knows Governor Laura Kelly of Kansas and Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky. (Hey, even realists have dreams.)
Horatio ..and Fortinbras
Yes, I can say for certain that Cooper declined to be considered because it would mean that my state would be left in the hands of madman Mark Robinson. Cooper is too good a man to let that happen.
Pennsylvania is nearly as close as Arizona, and closer than North Carolina and Kentucky, notwithstanding their Democratic governors. And Shapiro had confounding personal ambitions that made him a less than ideal running mate for Harris.