The Politics of Lisa, Susan, and Mitt
and how they came to vote for Biden's SCOTUS nominee
Kentaji Brown Jackson was confirmed with 50 Democratic votes and 3 Republican votes.1
Two are arguably Yankee Republicans (Collins, Romney), two are moderates (Collins, Murkowski), and two fit somewhat into the Western Republican image (Murkowski, Romney). Only one voted against the last Supreme Court nominee (Collins), one has been elected in another state (Romney), and one was not born in the U.S. (Murkowski)2.
Two voted for Kentaji Brown Jackson for the D.C. Court of Appeals in 2021 (Collins, Murkowski), two are the children of governors (Murkowski, Romney), and two have had lifelong careers in politics (Collins, Murkowski).
Their biggest commonality is that all three voted to convict Trump in his Second Impeachment Trial.
Susan Collins’ vote makes the most sense. In 2020, she was in a tight reelection battle, her state was presidential battleground in 2016, and it looked like the state was going to (once again) split its Electoral vote between Trump and Biden.3 She had looked foolish in acquitting Trump at his First Impeachment Trial and her vote for Kavanaugh had cost her a lot of pro-choice and equal rights credibility. Getting reelected and being free of having to answer to Trumpists and their demands of obeisance to Trump himself meant that Collins could return to her regular routine of Yankee Republicanism. Sadly, Collins is the only one.
Mitt Romney is a multi-millionaire (he’s worth $450 million) and a decent person. How decent? He had voted against Jackson in 2021 for the D.C. Court of Appeals and then met with her after she was nominated and decided Jackson, “judicial philosophy” aside, was eminently qualified to serve on the Supreme Court.
Romney knows that 2024 is going to be a problem for him, but he likely won’t care that much if he loses. Donald Trump was a thorn in his side when Romney ran for an open Senate seat in the Beehive State in 2018.
If Trump runs in 2024, he and Romney will be on the same ballot in Utah. Romney has cut a very conservative record for himself outside of his two guilty vote to convict Trump, but just like Joe Manchin — those votes were Edmund Ross moments that may eventually cost the two of them. But the thing is that Trump rankles quite a bit with Mormons and Romney gives them comfort.
Lisa Murkowski, on the other hand, rankles conservative Alaskans. Appointed by her father, Governor Frank Murkowski4, in 2002; she has never been elected to a full term with 50% of the vote. She won with 46.8% in 2004, 39.5% in 2010, and 44.4% in 2016.
The 2010 race was the most interesting, she was not even the GOP nominee and got elected with a write-in campaign. Native corporations and labor unions support were keys to her victory. Perpetual GOP candidate Joe Miller lost narrowly (10,252 votes), but he had little room to complain as the Democratic candidate garnered 23.46% of the vote.
Miller, whose rise as a Tea Party darling built his political career, took on Murkowski again in 2016 as a Libertarian. He was not the only third party candidate that election cycle, and the Democrats mailed it in by running a former Republican Ray Metcalfe —aiding Murkowski in her reelection. Miller, as a Libertarian, won 29.16% on the vote and third party voting in 2016 accounted for 42.41% of the total vote.
To say that Murkowski has benefited from third party voting is an understatement.5 In 2004, third party candidates won 5.87%. In 2010, Murkowski herself was a third party candidate and 47.05% of Alaskans rejected the Republican and Democratic nominees. And in 2016, 44.02% went to third party candidates.
One might be inclined to see Murkowski as perpetually in political danger, but a combination of the Last Frontier State’s fierce independent political streak and an electorate that does not divide well into Left/Right dynamics has aided her politically. Alaska’s recent change to ranked-choice voting6 has made Murkowski’s Senate votes much easier and the political palatable.
How palatable? The Murkowski/Democratic vote percentages for 2010 and 2016 are 62.96% and 55.98% respectively.
For Murkowski, ranked choice voting made her vote for Kentaji Brown Jackson easy and her vote to convict Trump in his Second Impeachment Trial more understandable. Given her words about Trump in his First Impeachment Trial (“shameful and wrong”)7, there could have easily been 2 GOP Senators voting to convict Trump in 2020 had ranked choice been instituted before February 5, 2020.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Lisa Murkowsi was born in the Territory of Alaska 2 years before it became the 49th state.
Biden won statewide in 2020, but Trump and Biden split the two congressional districts.
Frank Murkowski was the senior Senator from Alaska, when he was elected governor in 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Murkowski#Elections
The Alaska legislature adopted this voting method in 2020.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/politics/lisa-murkowski-trump-impeachment-vote/index.html