Viva La Left!
France and Great Britian (et al.) have moved leftward, will the US follow?
If there was ever a case to be made for a do-over election, the results of June 30, 2024 first round of voting for the French National Assembly certainly made the case for it.
Marine Le Pen and her Far-Right National Rally (RN) Party seemed poised to seize control of the lower house of France’s Parliament after the first round of voting. Fortunately, the Fifth Republic’s constitution has two rounds of voting and in the second round (July 7th), Le Pen and her party came in third place.
That said it was hardly a victory for French President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist Ensemble political alliance. In fact, his party lost seats.
The real winners were the New Popular Front (NPF), a collection of eco-socialists, traditional leftist Keynesians, and neo-Marxists. Unfortunately, the NPF failed to win a majority of seats in the 17th Assembly1 and will have to cooperate with Macron’s legislative allies.
With elections in France and Great Britain (plus occupied N. Ireland) moving leftward politically, will the U.S. follow suit?
A few thoughts.
First, Labour’s victory on July 4th was about a reconstituted Labour Party that emphasized a just left of Center political agenda very similar to its 1997 campaign. In 1997 and now in 2024, Labour abandoned its leftist roots and history to take power. Tony Blair and Keir Starmer have both moved into No. 10 Downing Street without a shred of idealistic hopes or realist expectations.
Second, the only reason the French Left prevailed was the sheer shock of June polls showing the National Rally (Le Pen) winning a massive number of Assembly seats and significant surge in turnout in both rounds of voting, particularly in the second round.2
Third, one would think that a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, and business fraud with a history of lies and carrying out petty personal scores wouldn’t be polling in the high 40s, but this is where we are.
I expect that the Jeffrey Epstein grand jury testimony (which was recently released), revelations about Project 2025 (the Far-Right game plan for a second Trump term), Trump’s sentencing in his New York porn star pay-off case (September 18th), abortion rights, and a Supreme Court at odds with the American public will keep Trump from gaining any political ground in the Fall.
But who knows?
The Tories clung to power for 5 years with 3 Prime Ministers (two of whom came to that position through Party leadership votes versus actual election ascendancy).
Marine Le Pen and the National Rally have gone from a fringe political movement to having nearly 25% of the seats in the National Assembly.
Since the birth of the Fifth Republic in France (1958), there have been 17 elections for the lower house of France’s Parliament. Each election forms a new Assembly.
In 2022, less than half of eligible voters voted in either round. In 2024, over two-thirds of eligible voted partipated.